The title of this entry was taken from a paper written by Thijs Kuiken, Edward C. Holmes, John McCauley, Guus F. Rimmelzwaan, Catherine S. Williams, and Bryan T. Grenfell. This paper appeared in SCIENCE Volume 312, pp 394 – 397. If you have the gumption to really know how viral infections cross the species barrier, then this is the paper for you. It’s written as a “perspective” rather than as a technical publication, which means there isn’t a bunch of jargon in it.
You can also contact the authors of the paper at t.kuiken@erasmusmc.nl.
A particularly interesting quote taken from the paper:
“It is well established that, as the proportion of susceptibles in the population, s, drops (as individuals become infected, then recover), the number of secondary cases per infection, R, also drops: R = s * R0. If R is less than 1, as is currently the case for H5N1 virus in humans, an infection will not cause a major epidemic.” (pg. 312) The value, R0, “is the number of secondary cases produced when an infected individual is introduced into a well-mixed local population of wholly susceptible individuals.” (pg. 312)
When you read this paper, keep in mind the wonder drug Tamiflu is an interferon based drug. There is wide knowledge that H5N1 has a record of circumventing that type of therapy (a case in 1997). For that reason, all of the stockpiled Tamiflu in your closet will do nothing for your H5N1 infection except act like an expensive placebo.
You can also contact the authors of the paper at t.kuiken@erasmusmc.nl.
A particularly interesting quote taken from the paper:
“It is well established that, as the proportion of susceptibles in the population, s, drops (as individuals become infected, then recover), the number of secondary cases per infection, R, also drops: R = s * R0. If R is less than 1, as is currently the case for H5N1 virus in humans, an infection will not cause a major epidemic.” (pg. 312) The value, R0, “is the number of secondary cases produced when an infected individual is introduced into a well-mixed local population of wholly susceptible individuals.” (pg. 312)
When you read this paper, keep in mind the wonder drug Tamiflu is an interferon based drug. There is wide knowledge that H5N1 has a record of circumventing that type of therapy (a case in 1997). For that reason, all of the stockpiled Tamiflu in your closet will do nothing for your H5N1 infection except act like an expensive placebo.