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GRAVE THREATS INDEED

Testimony today by Ben Bernanke, the Chairman of the US Federal Reserve, has him quoted as saying there are "Grave threats" to our economy if we don't act on this $700 Billion dollar MBS purchase deal.

Let's go back in time when Ben Bernanke came into power. What was the first big decision he made? Raise interest rates. How many times did Ben Bernanke and his buddies at the Federal Reserve raise interest rates? Over 11 times! [1]

In mid-2004, when the US housing bubble was in full swing, the typical mortgage holder could get money for as low as 3.5% and banks were getting it for 1%. Many home buyers purchased mortgages with a variable interest rate and were told that the rate was unlikely to go up that much.

When Bernanke took hold of the purse, his only trick was to raise interest rates. He kept claiming that inflation was out of control and that raising interest rates would help contain raising inflation. Clearly, this myopic and sophomoric view of the US economy lead to the destruction of the inflated housing market.

Bernanke, and his draconian cronies at the Federal Reserve, raised interest rates to banks from 1% to nearly 4% in just one year. That kicked many of those variable interest rate loans up more than 3% higher than their origination rate.

3% on a $400,000 loan means $12,000 more in interest each year, which is $1000 more per month in their payments. Who could afford that? Even the average loan of $250,000 would equal a minimum correction of $7500 per year, or at leat $600 per month. For most families living the dream, that meant the end of their homes.

Who's to blame? Ben Bernanke and his buddies. Clearly none of them knew anything about mortgage backed securities (CDOs) and didn't understand how they were intertwined into the economy. I had read about CDOs in the MIT Technology Review journal and quickly came to the conclusion that they were nothing more than an inverted equity vehicle. Instead of betting on revenue and profit, you were betting on debt value reduction. That smelled like junk bonds to me.

Now when Secretary Paulson gives his testimony [2], he's forced to explain in earnest why we need to infuse this money back into the economy when so much of it has already just evaporated (likely moved off-shore). Rightly so, though. These bad securities need to be removed from the economy so that people can remain in their homes.

Remember that there was a time when the person defaulting on their mortgage could afford their mortgage. It's only when the interest rates went into orbit that these people were forced out of their home. Why not just leave them in their homes with the origination interest rate and be done? Force all banks to carry their current mortgages at the origination rate and pick up the debt that has fallen out of recent bankruptcies.

Any deal that is struck with Congress must include the removal of Ben Bernanke. This has to be the final chapter in his inexcusable and incompetent term as Chairman. None of this would have happened if we had Alan Greenspan still at the helm.

[1] http://money.cnn.com/2005/09/20/news/economy/fed_rates/index.htm

[2] http://money.cnn.com/2008/09/24/news/economy/paulson_frank/index.htm?cnn=yes

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